Hager Ali
Senior Analyst



Hager Ali is a Senior Analyst at Middle East Minds. She is currently completing her doctorate thesis titled “Praetorianism in the MENA-Region. Military Governance and Civilian Control across Regime Types” at the University of Hamburg. After studying at Central European University and the Goethe University in Frankfurt am Main, she began working as researcher at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg. She specializes in civil-miliary relations, military coups, political systems and governance with a particular focus on North Africa and the Sahel. Hager frequently advises ministries, NGOs, and other organizations on democracy promotion, security, and intra-state conflict in the MENA-region and the Sahel, with a particular focus on the role of militaries, coup risks and state collapse. In this capacity, she is also active as guest editor at the Europrean Consortium for Political Research’s (ECPR) political science blog “The Loop”, where she produces the blog series “Autocracies with Adjectives”. As a freelance journalist, she published numerous articles and analyses in German and international media as well, such as the Tagesspiegel and Aljazeera English.


Kontakt: hager.ali@middle-east-minds.com



Research focus:

 

· Civil-military relations and Security in North Africa and the Sahel

· Governance, political systems and elections

· Political Violence, Intra-State Conflict, War

· Sanctions and Arms Trafficking


· Country Profiles: Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Tunisia, Russia in Africa, the Sahel, Horn of Africa
 



Publications:

  • Essays and Articles

    • Ali, H. (2024). Ein Jahr Krieg im Sudan: Zwischen alten Fragen und neuen Fronten. Wissenschaft & Frieden. 28.05.2024. https://wissenschaft-und-frieden.de/artikel/ein-jahr-krieg-im-sudan/

    • Ali, H. (2023). Abdelfattah Al-Burhan’s interim political system could still sabotage peace in Sudan. ECPR’s “The Loop” Blog. 25.09.2023. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/al-burhans-political-system-can-still-sabotage-peace-in-sudan/

    • Ali, H. (2023). The Sudan crisis: A power struggle by design. Al Jazeera English. 18.05.2023. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/5/18/the-sudan-crisis-a-power-struggle-by-design 

    • Ali, H. (2023). Machtkampf im Sudan: Wird der Konflikt zum Flächenbrand in Afrika? Der Tagesspiegel. 27.04.2023. https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/machtkampf-im-sudan-wird-der-konflikt-zum-flachenbrand-in-afrika-9758426.html 

    • Ali, H. (2023). Why the military promised to withdraw from power in Sudan. Political Violence at a Glance. 10.01.2023. https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2023/01/10/why-the-military-promised-to-withdraw-from-power-in-sudan/ 

    • Ali, H. (2022). Controlling militaries is the forgotten landmark of democracy after imperialism. ECPR’s “The Loop” Blog. 23.08.2022. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/controlling-militaries-is-the-forgotten-landmark-of-democracy-after-imperialism/ 

    • Ali, H. (2022). Autocracies with adjectives: The need for better typologies for authoritarian regimes. ECPR’s “The Loop” Blog. 06.05.2022. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/autocracies-with-adjectives-we-need-better-typologies-of-authoritarian-regimes/ 

    • Ali, H. (2022). Germany’s civil-military relations are a multi-partisan failure. ECPR’s “The Loop” Blog. 04.04.2022. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/germanys-civil-military-relations-are-a-multi-partisan-failure/ 

    • Ali, H. (2021). Sudan’s army is at a stalemate, and the costs are mounting. ECPR’s “The Loop” Blog. 29.11.2021. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/sudans-army-is-at-a-stalemate-and-the-costs-are-mounting/ 

    • Ali, H. (2021). Militärcoup im Sudan – Warum das Militär so viel Macht hat. Zenith Magazin. 23.11.2021. https://magazin.zenith.me/de/politik/militaercoup-im-sudan 

    • Ali, H. (2021). Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan failed long before the Taliban took over. ECPR’s “The Loop” Blog. 30.09.2021. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/counterinsurgency-in-afghanistan-failed-long-before-the-taliban-took-over/ 

    • Ali, H. (2021). Tunisia’s democracy is under challenge, but not under threat. ECPR’s “The Loop” Blog. 01.09.2021. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/tunisias-democracy-is-under-challenge-but-not-under-threat/

     

    • Ali, H. (2021). Holding elections in Libya is not a solution to the country's deep-seated problems. ECPR’s “The Loop” Blog. 10.08.2021. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/holding-elections-in-libya-is-not-a-solution-to-the-countrys-deep-seated-problems/ 

    • Ali, H. (2020). Das Militär und der Arabische Frühling - Beginn vor der Null. Zenith Magazin. 26.11.2020. https://magazin.zenith.me/de/politik/das-militaer-und-der-arabische-fruehling 

  • Paper and political analysis

    • Ali, H. (2024). The War in Sudan: How Weapons and Networks Shattered a Power Struggle. GIGA Focus Middle East. https://www.giga-hamburg.de/de/publikationen/giga-focus/the-war-in-sudan-how-weapons-and-networks-shattered-a-power-struggle   

    • Ali, Hager. (2024). Egypt: From Mediator to Regional Power Broker? In Wortz, E. & Osypenkova, O. (Eds) Then Things to Watch in the Middle East and North Africa in 2024. GIGA Focus Middle East 1(2024). https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publications/giga-focus/ten-things-to-watch-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-in-2024  

    • Bogaards, Matthijs & Hager Ali. (2023). Intra-Party Factionalism and its Impact on Regime Stability. In Grasso, M. & Giugni, M. (Eds.) Edward Elgar Encyclopedia of Sociology.

    • Ali, Hager & Kurtz, Gerrit. (2023). Stopping the War in Sudan. Civilian actors, not just the parties to the conflict, should lead the peace negotiations. SWP Comment 2023/C 28. DOI: 10.18449/2023C28

    • Ali, Hager & Kurtz, Gerrit. (2023). Den Krieg in Sudan stoppen. Zivile Akteure, nicht allein die Konfliktparteien, sollten die Friedensverhandlungen führen. SWP Aktuell 2023/A 32. DOI: 10.18449/2023A32

    • Ali, H. (2023). Defense against Small Parties: Electoral Reforms and their Impact on Tunisia's Electoral System since the Arab Spring. Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 16(2022), 483-503. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-023-00561-z 

    • Ali, Hager, Benhammou, Salah, & Powell, Jonathan (2022). Between Coups and Election: Constitutional Engineering and Military Entrenchment in Sudan. Africa Spectrum 57(3), 327-339. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00020397221136581

    • Ali, H. (2021). Book Review: Crisis in Autocratic Regimes edited by Johannes Gerschewski and Christoph H. Stefes, Boulder and London, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2018. Democratization 28(3), 647-648. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2020.1808625.

    • Ali, H. (2020). Egypt after the Arab Spring: A Legacy of No Advancement. GIGA Focus Middle East, Thematic Series ‘Military and Militarization’, 7(12/2020), 1-13. (online)

    • Ali, H. (2020). Ägypten nach dem Arabischen Frühling. Vermächtnis ohne Aufbruch. GIGA Focus Nahost, Themenreihe Militär und Militarisierung, 7(12/2020), 1-12. (online)

    • Ali, H. (2020). Book Review: Quagmire in Civil War. Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2020. Zeitschrift für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, 13(4), 409-411. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12399-020-00825-6

  • Interviews and Media Contributions

    • Tagesspiegel: “Krieg im Sudan: Sind die verfeindeten Generäle jetzt zum Waffenstillstand bereit?” (online and print, German)

    • Le Monde: “Comment le Soudan contourne l’embargo des Nations unies sur les armes” (online, French)

    • Deutsche Welle: “Sudan siege bears hallmarks of brutal Darfur war” (online, English, German and Arabic)

    • Vox: “Armed groups are likely committing ethnic cleansings and atrocities in Darfur — again” (online, English)

    • Orient XXI: „La Libye, plaque tournante d’un trafic d’armes en plein essor“ (online, French)

    • Aljazeera English: “Sudan: A savage war and toxic information battle“

    • Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung“ „Sudan-Konferenz in Paris: Ein neuer Anlauf, die Krise zu beenden“ (online and print, German)

    • Aljazeera English: „Can the Sudanese army sustain its recent battlefield success?“ (online, English)

    • Deutsche Welle: „Nach gemeinsamer Erklärung: Neue Hoffnung für Libyen?“ (online, German, English and Arabic)

    • epd: „Expertin sieht kaum Anlass für Optimismus in Libyen“ (online, German)

    • Deutsche Welle: „Libya: Russia's Wagner Group makes further inroads“ (online, German, English, and Arabic)

    • Die Welt: “Kampf Gegen Russland: Wenn der ukrainische Geheimdienst plötzlich Mitten in Afrika auftaucht” (online, German and English)

    • “Echo der Zeit” of Swiss National Media: “Im Sudan gewinnen Milizen der Rapid Support Forces an Terrain” (radio and online, German)

    • Deutsche Welle: “Tunisia’s 2024 election: What Role will Migration Play” (online, German, Arabic, French, and English)

    • Qantara and Deutsche Welle: “Sudan Crisis: Mass Displacement and Death” (online, German, Arabic, and English). 

    • Deutschlandfunk: “Libyen-Expertin: Behörden unterdrücken Informationen über Flutschäden” (online, German)

    • WDR Cosmo Radio: Libya after the Flood in Derna (18:20, 5 min, German)

    • Deutsche Welle: “Libya flood: Civil society unites in ramping up aid” (online, German and English)

    • Africa Defense Forum Magazine: “Evenly Matched, Sudan Generals Reach a Stalemate While Civilians Suffer” (online, English)

    • Deutsche Welle: “Algeria Faces Political Dilemma Over Niger Coup” (online, English)

    • “Echo der Zeit” of Swiss National Media: “Im Sudan bekämpfen sich zwei gleichwertige Armeen“ (radio and online, German) 

    • Deutsche Welle: “Is the AU failing in its role as a mediator?” (online, English)

    • Deutsche Welle: “Wie die AU an ihrer Vermittlerrolle zu scheitern droht” (online, German)

    • Die Welt: „Hier rächt sich, dass die geopolitische Wichtigkeit des Sudans verkannt wurde“ (print and online, German)

    • ARD Tagesschau: “Konflikt im Sudan: Wie ausländische Mächte mitmischen” (online, German)

    • ARD Tagesschau: “Kämpfe im Sudan dauern an”.  Tagesschau Sunday Broadcast (20:05, 3min, German)

    • ARD Mittagsmagazin: "Ausländische Mächte und ihre Interessen im Sudan“ (13:00, 5min, German)

    • Deutsche Welle: "Sudan: Red tape exacerbates humanitarian crisis“(online, English)

    • Tagesspiegel: „Brutaler Machtkampf im Sudan: Wie zwei Generäle ein ganzes Land in Brand stecken“ (print and online, German)

    • Frankfurter Neue Presse: “"Es ist keine plötzliche Eskalation" Sicherheitsexpertin Hager Ali über die Lage im Sudan und die Rolle Russlands” (print, German)

    •  SR: “Einschätzung der Sicherheits-Expertin Hager Ali zur Humanitären Lage im Sudan” (12:15, 5min, German)

    • Deutsche Welle: “Die Schwierige Humanitäre Lage im Sudan” (online, German)

    • MDR: “Konflikt im Sudan: Wie zwei Generäle ein Land zerstören”   (08:20, 5min, German)

    • Deutsche Welle: “Sudan Clashes: Can the Generals be Trusted?” (32:04 minutes, online)

    • Deutsche Welle: “Sudan: Stalemates rule out one-man victory” (online, English)

    •  The New Arab: “What can Syrians expect from the Astana Peace Talks?” (online, English)

    • Deutsche Welle: „Sudan’s difficult path to democratic transition“(online, English)

    • Deutsche Welle: „Libyen: Die unendliche Stagnation“ (online, German)

    • Deutschlandfunk Journal vor Mitternacht: Berlin Conference on Libya’s Peace Process (23:00 CEST, 7 min, German). 

    • Deutschlandfunk Nova “Hielscher oder Haase”: the Berlin Conference on Libya’s Peace Process and Stability  (9:00 CEST, 4:36 min, online with article and recording).